Gold rate jumps 25% in YTD. Is it the right time to buy gold in current rally?

Gold has shown exceptional performance in the first four months of 2025, surging nearly 25 per cent year-to-date (YTD) and reaching record highs on both the MCX and COMEX exchanges. This sharp rally is attributed to a combination of heightened geopolitical risks, trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China—and a surge in safe-haven demand from both institutional and retail investors.

According to experts, the outlook for gold remains constructive. Persistent trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and central bank gold purchases are expected to continue supporting prices.

Gold has shown exceptional performance in the first four months of 2025, surging nearly 25 per cent year-to-date (YTD) and reaching record highs on both the MCX and COMEX exchanges. This sharp rally is attributed to a combination of heightened geopolitical risks, trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China—and a surge in safe-haven demand from both institutional and retail investors.

According to experts, the outlook for gold remains constructive. Persistent trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and central bank gold purchases are expected to continue supporting prices.

“In an environment dominated by policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and volatile geopolitics, gold continues to be a beacon of stability. As central banks bolster their reserves and investors seek safety, we believe gold will remain a favoured asset. Barring any significant resolution in global trade tensions, we maintain a ‘buy on dips’ view from a medium to long-term perspective,” said Navneet Damani, Grp Sr. Vice President, Head Commodity & Currency Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Is it right time to invest in gold?

NS Ramaswamy – Head of Commodities at Ventura says that buying gold in the current rally is not recommended.

“Opportunities to buy would be thrown open in the short- term only on price corrections. The levels sought for buying could be $3150 and $3080. Medium-term of 6 to 8 months an upside potential is still intact for levels of $3450 to $3550. The present rally in the short term is debatable as every rise gives a potential profit-booking and price correction,” Ramaswamy said.

He further added that the rally seemingly is at its peak, overallocation to gold is not recommended. Any near-term rate cuts from the US FED, that’s probably got factored in the gold prices. As gold scales new highs the potential volatility throw more downside risk.

On the other hand, Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, VT Markets, said that buying at the top is always risky as you leave yourself open to corrections on overbought technicals and potential profit taking.